Tracking what every party says — 2026 General Election & beyond

Seat Projection

120 seats allocated using the Sainte-Laguë method from the average of the last 6 published polls. Parties below 5% are excluded. This is a projection — not a prediction.

Majority · 61LabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourLabourGreenGreenGreenGreenGreenGreenGreenGreenGreenGreenGreenGreenGreenGreenGreenTOPTOPTOPTOPTOPTOPTOPTOPNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalNationalACTACTACTACTACTACTACTACTACTACTACTNZ FirstNZ FirstNZ FirstNZ FirstNZ FirstNZ FirstNZ FirstNZ FirstNZ FirstNZ FirstNZ FirstNZ First
Government (Nat+ACT+NZF): 61Opposition: 5961 of 120 needed for a majority
Labour36(28.6%)
Green15(12.2%)
TOP8(6.8%)
National38(29.8%)
ACT11(8.9%)
NZ First12(9.5%)
Total120
● TOP — distance to parliament
5% threshold
6% safe
Polling now: 6.8%Needs +0.0% to reach the 5% thresholdNeeds +0.0% to be comfortably in
Polling averages used
PollDateNationalLabourGreenACTNZ FirstTe Pāti MāoriTOP
Taxpayers' Union–Curia2026-09-0329.0%25.9%13.9%10.5%8.4%2.0%4.5%
Roy Morgan2026-08-2331.0%24.0%15.5%10.5%7.5%1.5%9.5%
RNZ–Reid Research2026-08-2129.1%32.2%10.2%7.7%11.9%3.0%5.3%
Talbot Mills2026-08-1129.0%34.0%8.0%7.0%13.0%3.0%5.2%
1News–Verian2026-08-1129.0%30.0%12.0%9.0%8.0%1.1%8.0%
Roy Morgan2026-07-2632.0%25.5%13.5%8.5%8.5%2.0%8.0%
Average29.8%28.6%12.2%8.9%9.5%2.1%6.8%
Polls are entered manually from published NZ polling results. Sainte-Laguë is the method used in New Zealand's actual MMP count. The 5% threshold is applied; electorate lifeboat scenarios are not modelled. Seat counts will shift as new polls are added.