Seat Projection
120 seats allocated using the Sainte-Laguë method from the average of the last 6 published polls. Parties below 5% are excluded. This is a projection — not a prediction.
Government (Nat+ACT+NZF): 60Opposition: 6061 of 120 needed for a majority
Labour39(31.2%)
Green14(10.7%)
TOP7(5.8%)
National37(29.7%)
ACT10(7.8%)
NZ First13(10.6%)
Total120
● TOP — distance to parliament
Polling now: 5.8%Needs +0.0% to reach the 5% thresholdNeeds +0.3% to be comfortably in
Polling averages used
| Poll | Date | National | Labour | Green | ACT | NZ First | Te Pāti Māori | TOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RNZ–Reid Research | 2026-08-21 | 29.1% | 32.2% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 5.3% |
| 1News–Verian | 2026-08-11 | 29.0% | 30.0% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 1.1% | 8.0% |
| Talbot Mills | 2026-08-11 | 29.0% | 34.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 5.2% |
| Roy Morgan | 2026-07-26 | 32.0% | 25.5% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 2.0% | 8.0% |
| RNZ–Reid Research | 2026-07-09 | 28.7% | 34.0% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 2.3% | 4.7% |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 2026-07-05 | 30.5% | 31.5% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| Average | 29.7% | 31.2% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 5.8% | |
Polls are entered manually from published NZ polling results. Sainte-Laguë is the method used in New Zealand's actual MMP count. The 5% threshold is applied; electorate lifeboat scenarios are not modelled. Seat counts will shift as new polls are added.