Pitched as restoring certainty for victims by guaranteeing tougher sentences for the worst repeat violent and sexual offenders — reversing Labour's 2022 repeal of the original 2010 law.

The Policy: National Real Consequences for Crime — 2023 Election →

What it does:

• How it works: a three-stage regime. A first qualifying conviction brings a formal warning; a second means the sentence is served without parole; a third brings the maximum (or near-maximum) term, with a 'manifest injustice' safety valve for judges. Warnings recorded under the old 2010–2022 law can be reactivated (Ministry of Justice).
• Scope: it covers 42 serious violent and sexual offences, including newly added strangulation and suffocation. To screen out minor cases, this version sets a higher bar than the 2010 law — a strike only counts where the sentence is more than 12 months (first strike) or more than 24 months (second) (Ministry of Justice news).
• Timeline: the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Act passed in December 2024 and came into force on 17 June 2025 (1News).

The result:

National delivered it — the law is in force — so on its own terms the promise is kept. Whether it works is contested. The New Zealand Law Society submitted that the evidence shows minimal deterrent effect and that it is unlikely to reduce crime; the Children's Commissioner, Human Rights Commission, NZ Bar Association, Māori Law Society and Pacific Lawyers Association opposed it, warning it would fall disproportionately on Māori and Pasifika, ignore individual circumstances, and sit uneasily with the Bill of Rights, the Treaty and UN anti-torture guidance (NZ Law Society). From the other side, much of the public feedback — largely organised by the Sensible Sentencing Trust — argued it did not go far enough (RNZ). Verdict: a kept promise whose deterrent value is genuinely disputed, with warnings it may deepen existing inequities in the justice system.